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War closes the sea routes that supply food to East Africa's hungriest countries

The Gulf sea lane has almost stopped carrying ships. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 3.3 ships a day in the week of 19–25 October 2026 (IMF PortWatch). That is 97 percent fewer than a year earlier. Iran's war with the US and Israel, re-escalated since July, is the cause. In Sudan, the army and the Rapid Support Forces remain at war, with 33.7 million people needing assistance (OCHA, 2026 HNRP). Gaza's ceasefire has been violated for 272 days in a row. Israeli strikes since the ceasefire have killed at least 1,092 Gazans (Gaza Ministry of Health, 27 October 2026).

For families in Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan, closed shipping means wheat, fuel and cooking oil cost more and arrive late. Drought is already hitting much of East and Central Africa (GDACS, 28 October 2026). In India, cyclone Arnab now brings winds of 119 km/h or more toward about 2.8 million people (Watchfloor estimate on advisory 10, 28 October 2026). It is a new burden on the Bay of Bengal coast. Aid agencies serving East Africa should pre-position food and fuel now, before winter storms and war choke supply further. Donors should fund Sudan's response plan, which remains far short of needs.

Watch items

• Iran — a full Hormuz blockade cutting Gulf food imports to East Africa
• Sudan — famine spreading to more states as RSF offensives continue
• Haiti — gangs expanding from Port-au-Prince into provincial towns