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Gulf shipping has almost stopped, and Ethiopia's new war is deepening

The sea route into the Gulf is nearly empty of ships. Only 3.3 ships a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the week 19-25 October 2026 (IMF PortWatch) — down 97 percent from 102 a day a year earlier (IMF PortWatch, week 20–26 Oct 2025). The Iran-US-Israel war that began in February 2026 keeps the strait closed, and with it the food and fuel that Gulf ports normally send onward to East Africa and Yemen. Meanwhile Ethiopia, already fighting a two-front civil war, has bought Russian fighter jets and air defence systems (BBC, 29 Oct 2026), pointing toward a wider war in Tigray. In Haiti, gangs still hold about 90 percent of Port-au-Prince while the UN-backed force has only about 1,000 of its authorized 5,550 personnel.

For people in the Horn of Africa, the blocked strait means grain and fuel moving through Gulf ports cost more and arrive later, on top of drought that GDACS has tracked across Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan and Kenya since 27 October 2026. In Sudan, 33.7 million people need assistance in 2026 (OCHA) as civil war and the famine it has produced grind on. Aid agencies serving Yemen and East Africa should pre-position food and fuel now and budget for longer, costlier routes around the Cape. Donors should fund the Haiti force to full strength so it can reopen the roads gangs now control.

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