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War has closed the sea routes that supply East Africa and the Gulf
The seas that carry the world's food are being emptied by war. Only 3.7 ships a day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the week of 12–18 October (IMF PortWatch), down from 73.7 a year earlier (IMF PortWatch, week 13–19 Oct 2025), after Iran's July strikes on commercial shipping and the US strikes that followed. The Bosporus, the grain route out of the Black Sea, carried 46.6 ships a day that same week (IMF PortWatch, week 12–18 Oct 2026), down 54 percent on the year. Kerch carried none. Sudan, Yemen and South Sudan sit at famine-scale hunger while the war in Ukraine and the Iran war squeeze the shipping that supplies them.
For families in import-dependent countries, this means higher grain prices in markets from Yemen to the Horn of Africa, on top of drought now recorded across Sudan, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya (GDACS, 23 October). In Haiti, gangs still hold about 90 percent of Port-au-Prince and a record 1.5 million people are displaced (redeployments from Feb 2026, the 11 Jun 2026 accusation of a TPLF Eritrea-backed attack)(IOM, June 2026). The EU's extra 22.5 million euros for Yemen (ECHO, October 2026) is small against that scale. Gulf-funded grain purchases and shipping insurers should keep Red Sea and Hormuz routes priced and open for food cargo, and country teams in the Horn should pre-position stocks before prices climb further.
Watch items
- Japan — Typhoon Champi threatens 8 million people with damaging winds
- Burkina Faso — JNIM blockade of Djibo could tip the town into famine
- Iran — Hormuz closure could cut Gulf food imports to near zero