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The Gulf shipping lane is nearly empty, and food-short East Africa will pay
The Strait of Hormuz has almost stopped carrying ships. Traffic fell to 3.7 ships a day (IMF PortWatch, week 12–18 Oct 2026), from 68 a day before the Iran war began (IMF PortWatch, 1 Jan–27 Feb 2026). The Bosporus is down by more than half on a year earlier. Sudan, Yemen and South Sudan top the crisis list, all with famine-scale hunger. Sudan's civil war continues after the Rapid Support Forces took El Fasher, and 33.7 million people need aid there in 2026 (OCHA). In Gaza, the October 2025 ceasefire holds only on paper, with strikes continuing and aid still restricted (HRW, 19 May 2026).
Gulf shipping carries wheat and fuel into ports that East Africa's hungry countries depend on, so the empty strait pushes prices up where people can least afford it. Drought now stretches across Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad and Nigeria (GDACS, 22 Oct 2026), deepening that squeeze. Yemen shows what layered failure looks like: war, hunger and a currency down more than 500 percent. Aid agencies with food stocks in the region should pre-position them at ports and along inland corridors before prices and insecurity combine. Donors should fund the Yemen appeal now, with the EU's extra 22.5 million euros (ECHO, 23 Oct 2026) as a start, not an end.
Watch items
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- Haiti — gangs may cut food routes from the capital outward
- Kenya — second Ebola death may spread beyond initial contacts