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War and drought squeeze the same countries, and aid money is drying up faster
Eritrean troops have pushed deep into Ethiopia's Tigray region as fighting escalates (BBC, 8 Oct 2026). Yemen's new escalation has displaced more than 200,000 people while funding dries up (IOM, Oct 2026). Sudan's army-RSF war continues, with 33.7 million people needing assistance in 2026 (OCHA, 2026 HNRP). The UN Fact-Finding Mission (UNFFM) found the RSF committed genocide in and around El Fasher (UNFFM, Feb 2026). Drought is running from Sudan and Ethiopia through the Sahel to Cuba and Haiti (GDACS, as of 8 Oct 2026), hitting the exact countries already at war.
These crises now reinforce each other. War blocks roads and markets; drought kills crops; collapsed currencies put food out of reach. Yemen's currency has lost over five times its value against the dollar, and Iran's is far worse. Gulf food imports that East Africa depends on move through a Strait of Hormuz running at about 15 transits a day, down from roughly 110 before the Iran war. Donors should protect food and displacement funding for Sudan, Yemen and South Sudan now, before the year-end allocations close. Agencies in Tigray should pre-position supplies in case the Eritrean advance cuts supply lines.
Watch items
- Ethiopia — Eritrean advance in Tigray could cut roads and besiege towns
- Yemen — Fresh escalation could double displacement beyond 200,000 people
- Sudan — RSF could open new sieges on North Kordofan towns