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War and hunger now drive each other across a belt from Sudan to Somalia
Six of the world's ten worst crises form one contiguous arc. Sudan's army-RSF war grinds on with famine-scale hunger affecting roughly two-thirds of the population and 33.7 million people needing assistance in 2026 (OCHA, 2026 HNRP). Yemen's civil war has re-escalated: 1,644 battle deaths over the trailing 12 months (UCDP, as of Sep 2026), up from 376, with 18.3 million acutely food insecure (OCHA, 2026 HNRP). The Red Sea remains quiet, with no confirmed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels since September 2025 despite the February 2026 resumption announcement.
The connection is the Red Sea itself. Iran's war with the US and Israel, re-escalated since the July collapse of its ceasefire, has cut Hormuz traffic to roughly 15 transits a day from roughly 110 pre-war, choking the Gulf shipping lane that East African and Yemeni food imports depend on. FAO's global food price index (Aug 2026) remains elevated, so countries already at war are buying food on expensive global terms. The watch item is not any single conflict but the compounding: drought across the Horn (GDACS, as of Sep 2026), war, and constrained sea lanes hitting the same populations at once.
Watch items
- Iran — Hormuz blockade impact on Gulf food imports
- Bangladesh — Dhaka flooding next 72 hours as Fatum readvances northeast
- Sudan — RSF El Obeid siege driving new displacement in North Kordofan