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Two collapsed-state famines and an unresolved Hormuz crisis define the global risk picture
Two collapsed states and one open chokepoint define the global risk map. Sudan's SAF-RSF war continues with no ceasefire, alongside OCHA's projection of 33.7 million people needing assistance in 2026 and a UN Fact-Finding Mission finding of genocide (Feb 2026). The Iran-US-Israel war, open since 28 Feb 2026, is re-escalating: Hormuz traffic runs at roughly 15 transits a day versus roughly 110 before the war. Gaza's October 2025 ceasefire erodes under continuing strikes that killed at least 1,092 people (Gaza MoH, as of July 2026).
The second-order story is chokepoints and compounding hunger. Hormuz disruption and the Red Sea's structured pause since September 2025 bear directly on food import dependence in Yemen, where 18.3 million people are acutely food insecure (OCHA, 2026 HNRP), and in East Africa, where drought now covers Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan simultaneously (GDACS, as of 26 Sep 2026). FAO's August 2026 oils level at 196.9 signals costlier imported staples exactly where purchasing power has collapsed. Leaders' diplomacy — the US-China summit — touches none of these fronts.
Watch items
- Sudan — RSF pressure on El Obeid deepening famine conditions
- Iran — Hormuz re-escalation choking Gulf food import routes
- Haiti — Gang Suppression Force still one-fifth of authorized strength