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Paper truces in Gaza and Ukraine mask active bombardments while Sudan's civil war engulfs Kordofan.

In Sudan, the civil war has shifted to Kordofan. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces launched fifteen drone strikes on El Obeid in June, threatening half a million civilians. In Gaza, a nine-month truce exists mostly on paper. Israeli strikes killed at least nine people in early July while aid deliveries remain severely restricted. Ukraine faces continued infrastructure bombardments, including a deadly July 3 strike on Kyiv, as both sides contest the eastern city of Kostyantynivka. South Sudan is sliding back into civil war, with recent fighting in Jonglei displacing over 300,000 people. Combat continues to outpace diplomacy.

These overlapping conflicts create cascading secondary shocks. The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran leaves Strait of Hormuz transit routes contested, directly threatening food imports for Gulf states and East Africa. In Sudan and South Sudan, mass displacement creates large camps of IDPs, or internally displaced people, who cannot farm. This pushes local populations into IPC Phase 5, the highest level on the food-crisis scale where starvation and death occur. With global cereal prices remaining high, countries relying on imports face compounding economic strain. Diplomatic pauses are failing to translate into physical access for aid.

Watch items

• Sudan — Monitor El Obeid siege impact on Kordofan supply routes.
• Iran — Track Hormuz transit tolls affecting East Africa food imports.
• Haiti — Track gang displacement surges ahead of GSF full deployment.