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Ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East mask accelerating state collapse across Sudan and the Sahel.
In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces are massing around El Obeid, launching drone strikes that killed 45 civilians in June and displacing 5,500 children in two weeks. A fragile Middle East truce is fraying: Israel killed four people in Lebanon despite a June ceasefire, while Iran pauses diplomatic talks for Supreme Leader Khamenei’s funeral. In Ukraine, Russia claims it captured Kostyantynivka, though Kyiv denies this ahead of the Ankara NATO summit. Simultaneously, Venezuela is struggling to distribute aid after high-magnitude earthquakes triggered severe food shortages, pushing millions into crisis-level hunger.
These overlapping shocks threaten global supply chains and regional stability. Iran’s contested control over the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts Gulf food imports, exacerbating global food prices already elevated by climate shocks. In the Sahel, jihadist blockades of Bamako and besieged towns in Burkina Faso are severing critical fuel and food routes, guaranteeing famine conditions for trapped populations. When diplomatic energy focuses entirely on high-profile wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, the quiet collapse of state infrastructure in Africa and Latin America creates unmanageable secondary displacement and radicalization risks.
Watch items
- Sudan — RSF drone strikes on El Obeid civilian infrastructure.
- Iran — Iranian transit tolls disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipping.
- Mali — JNIM fuel blockades severing Bamako's critical supply routes.