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Paper ceasefires across the Middle East and Ukraine mask active combat and deepening global displacement.
In Sudan, the civil war enters its fourth year with 11.8 million internally displaced people and famine weaponized in Darfur. In Lebanon, a paper ceasefire hides expanding Israeli ground operations beyond the Litani River, displacing over a million people. The Gaza truce is similarly fracturing, with aid deliveries halved and civilian killings documented. Meanwhile, the Myanmar military junta controls just a fifth of its territory as resistance forces push toward Mandalay. Global food prices remain stubbornly high, compounding these crises. In Haiti, rival gang coalitions are fighting over territory north of the capital.
The collapse of local currencies in Iran, Sudan, and Venezuela is destroying purchasing power just as global cereal and cooking oil prices surge. In the Middle East, the fragile framework to end the Iran war hinges on resolving the Strait of Hormuz blockade. If negotiations fail and the dual blockade resumes, Gulf food imports will choke, immediately spiking prices across East Africa and Yemen. Furthermore, the drawdown of international peacekeeping missions in Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo leaves millions exposed to resurgent armed groups. Diplomacy is currently managing decline rather than resolving these structural fractures.
Watch items
- Iran — Strait of Hormuz blockade threatening Gulf food imports
- Lebanon — Expanding ground operations violating fragile paper ceasefire agreement
- Somalia — Presidential mandate crisis and peacekeeping drawdown fueling insurgency