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Fragile Middle East ceasefires mask escalating ground wars and deepening state collapse across Africa.
In Lebanon, a paper ceasefire is collapsing as Israeli forces expand ground operations beyond the Litani River, killing over 600 people since the truce. Meanwhile, Sudan’s civil war has created 11.8 million internally displaced people (IDPs)—those forced to flee within their own borders—and refugees, a population larger than Greece, with famine confirmed in El Fasher. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a new Ebola outbreak is spreading while Rwanda-backed rebels occupy the major city of Goma. Somalia faces deepening political fracture as Puntland's withdrawal empowers a resurgent insurgency encircling the capital.
These fragmented conflicts drive severe second-order economic shocks. The ongoing Strait of Hormuz dispute between the US and Iran threatens global shipping, keeping food and cooking oil prices elevated. In Gaza, Israeli restrictions on aid crossings are pushing the territory back toward IPC Phase 5—the highest level on the 1-to-5 food-crisis scale—despite a formal truce. High global cereal costs compound local currency collapses in South Sudan and Ethiopia, pricing out the poorest citizens. When peace agreements exist only on paper, humanitarian supply chains remain broken, turning localized crop shortages into mass starvation.
Watch items
- Iran — Hormuz standoff threatening Gulf food and fuel imports
- Myanmar — Junta collapse in Mandalay triggering mass civilian displacement
- Somalia — Al-Shabaab encirclement of Mogadishu amid federal political vacuum