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Middle East paper ceasefires mask violent re-escalation, while state collapse accelerates across Africa and Asia.

In Lebanon, a fragile truce is failing. Israeli forces crossed the Litani River and expanded their security zone. They have killed 608 people since the ceasefire began. Meanwhile, the US and Iran agreed to a 60-day framework to end their war. Disputes over the Strait of Hormuz remain. In Sudan, the civil war continues to devastate the population. With 11.8 million people displaced—more than the population of Berlin—it is the largest displacement crisis globally. Famine is confirmed in multiple regions. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a new Ebola outbreak is spreading rapidly.

These overlapping crises create severe secondary effects. The Iran framework relies on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. If negotiations fail, global oil and food shipping will face renewed blockades. This drives up prices for vulnerable regions like East Africa. In Sudan and Myanmar, total state collapse means aid groups cannot reach millions of people. In Myanmar, the military junta now controls only a fifth of the country. When governments lose control of territory, basic services like farming and healthcare stop entirely. This turns local conflicts into long-term emergencies that destabilize neighboring countries and drive mass migration.

Watch items

• Lebanon — Israeli ground expansion beyond the Litani River
• DR Congo — Ebola outbreak spreading amid active M23 conflict zones
• Haiti — Rival gangs fighting near the capital's main supply roads