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Ceasefires in Gaza, Lebanon, and Sudan are failing, replacing active combat with engineered starvation and displacement.

In Lebanon, Israeli forces are expanding ground operations beyond their 10-kilometer security zone despite a paper ceasefire, killing over 600 people since the truce began. In Gaza, aid deliveries have halved at border crossings this month, pushing the territory back toward famine after a brief reprieve. Meanwhile, Sudan’s civil war has turned Tawila into a massive camp for internally displaced people, or IDPs, fleeing famine conditions in El Fasher. The fighting has shifted from open battles to deliberate blockades, trapping millions of civilians without food or medical supplies. Aid access will likely shrink further as the rainy season begins.

The collapse of these truces creates severe second-order effects across global supply chains. In the Middle East, the fragile 60-day ceasefire framework between the US and Iran hinges on clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. If this deal stalls, the resulting naval blockade will immediately spike global cooking oil prices, which are already near record highs. This directly worsens the food crisis in South Sudan, where the local currency has lost most of its value this month, making imported grain unaffordable. When warring parties use starvation as a weapon, the resulting displacement spills across borders. Diplomatic efforts will now focus on keeping maritime trade routes open.

Watch items

• Iran — Strait of Hormuz mine clearance delays threatening global oil transit
• Lebanon — Israeli ground expansion beyond Litani River risking full ceasefire collapse
• South Sudan — Currency collapse making imported grain unaffordable amid renewed civil war