Strait of Hormuz 2026: method and limits
Status 19 October 2026. Every number on the 3D view comes from the files described here.
1. Ships counted by radar satellite
Ships can switch off their tracking transponder (AIS) or send false positions. A radar satellite does not need their cooperation: a steel hull on the sea returns a bright echo, day or night, through cloud. We counted those echoes on every Sentinel-1 pass over four areas from 1 January to 16 October 2026.
| Area | Box |
|---|---|
| Hormuz box (both sides of the Musandam peninsula) | 25.6-26.8N, 55.8-57.2E |
| Strait lanes (inside the Hormuz box) | 26.4-26.75N, 56.2-56.85E |
| Fujairah and Khor Fakkan anchorage | 24.9-25.6N, 56.3-56.7E |
| Sohar anchorage and approaches | 24.25-24.65N, 56.6-57.0E |
Land and a 300 m strip along every coast are left out, so ships at berth are not counted; ships at anchor and under way are.
How a ship is found. Each radar pixel over water is compared with the sea around it (a 1 km square with a 300 m hole). Bright, compact objects are kept when they are also bright in the second polarisation (steel hulls are; wind streaks, slicks and rain cells mostly are not). Faint copies of very bright ships ("ghost" echoes along the satellite track) are removed. Spots that return an echo on more than half of all passes (platforms, buoys, wrecks, jetty heads) are removed: 38 spots. Each ship gets a length class: small (under 50 m), medium (50-150 m) or large (over 150 m), good to about ±20-40 m.
The comparable series. Only the evening orbit (relative orbit 57: evening pass, about 18:16 local, 14:16 UTC) sees all areas in full. The trend uses that orbit only, only passes that saw the whole area, and leaves out passes with an unusually calm or patchy sea. "Before" = passes from 1 January to 27 February; "now" = the last four weeks to 13 October.
| Area | Before | Now | Highest pass |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fujairah and Khor Fakkan anchorage | 188.5 | 343 | 373 (2026-09-07) |
| Sohar anchorage | 25.8 | 93.4 | 130 (2026-08-20) |
| Strait lanes | 24.7 | 4.5 | - |
Check with a second orbit. The dawn pass (orbit 93, about 06:06 local, 02:06 UTC) gives Fujairah 199.2 before and 353.5 now.
Radar against ship-tracking. Before the war the radar saw 0.36 ships in the lanes for every transit IMF PortWatch counted that day. On the 38 passes since 2 March it saw 162 ships where that ratio predicts 92. Radar cannot tell whether the extra ships have tracking switched off, are small craft, or are waiting.
Limits.
- Small boats and dhows are under-counted; calm seas make them easier to see.
- Ships moored side by side can merge into one echo: dense anchorage counts are, if anything, low.
- A ship that never moved for most of the year would be removed with the fixed objects.
- False alarms measured in two open-sea control boxes: at most 2.74 objects per 1,000 km² per pass, almost all of them real ships crossing.
- Six passes exist only in a format that takes about an hour each to process here (the latest is 18 October). None of them is on the evening orbit used for the trend.
2. Ship-tracking transits
Ships crossing the strait, counted from ship-tracking signals (AIS) by IMF PortWatch: 85.5 a day in 2025, 68.1 a day from 1 Jan to 27 Feb 2026, 4.1 a day in the week 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11. Likely an undercount: ships can switch tracking off, and false positions also occur. Source: IMF PortWatch, daily chokepoint data, downloaded 19 October 2026.
3. Attacks and seizures
Counted = a named ship or site and a dated source. Confirmed = two or more independent sources, or one on-record official source (e.g. UK Maritime Trade Operations, a government); single source = one unverified source; claim = a statement by a party to the war only.
179 reports are counted: 154 confirmed, 9 single source, 16 claims; 137 ships, 27 energy sites, 6 ports, 9 naval sites. Official notices, reports that name no ship or site, events outside the area and probable duplicates are not counted.
How they are drawn.
- point (1): position given by the source
- site (38): the named port or plant; the exact spot inside it is not reported
- area (81): position worked out from a distance to a named place ("17 nm northwest of Mina Saqr"): drawn as a 12 km circle
- region (49): only a sea area is reported: drawn as a 30 km circle
- none (10): no position: listed, not drawn
Conflicts between sources. The vessel hit 4 nautical miles east of Ras Laffan on 19 March is named Halul 50 in the IMO list, with its IMO number (9602796); some press reports called it Halul 69, and the UKMTO warning names no vessel. The IMO list dates the Stena Imperative hit to 1 March, Reuters to 2 March: we could not settle it from a primary source, so both dates are given. Several news-agency pages could not be opened directly and were read through outlets that carried them.
Sources cited: ABC News Australia (citing Caixin, chief engineer), ANI (quoting Embassy of India in Oman), ANI (quoting UKMTO warning 174-26 and India's shipping minister), AP (via Ada Derana), Aaj News (citing Fujairah Media Office, UAE defence ministry), Aaj Tak, Ada Derana (Anadolu), Airwars MEMAR260307a, Airwars MEMAR260318a, Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera (citing IRGC via IRIB), Al Jazeera (citing UKMTO), Al Jazeera (video), Al-Monitor, Al-Monitor (AFP), All India Radio News (citing Fujairah Government Media Office), All India Radio News (citing Iranian state media, Qatar, UAE), Anadolu Agency (citing Oman News Agency), Anadolu Agency (citing PDO via ONA), Anadolu Agency (citing QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi), Anadolu Agency (citing QatarEnergy CEO), Arab News (Reuters; Qatar MFA spokesman Majed Al Ansari), Arab News (agencies), Argus Media, Argus Media (UAE MFA), Argus Media (citing KPC), Argus Media (quoting India's shipping minister Sonowal and UKMTO), BBC News, BBC Verify, Baird Maritime, Baird Maritime (Reuters wire), Baird Maritime (Reuters), Baird Maritime (Reuters, citing UKMTO, Ambrey), Bay News 9 (AP, citing UKMTO), Bernama (Anadolu), Bloomberg (Bloomberg Government), Business Insider, CBC, CNN live, Clearwater Dynamics alert (citing UKMTO), Container News (India MEA), Cyprus Mail, Cyprus Mail (Cyprus Deputy Shipping Minister Marina Hadjimanolis), DW liveblog (citing IRGC/Sepah News), Daily Tribune (AFP, citing UKMTO, Vanguard Tech), Daily Tribune, Philippines (OWWA/DMW), Deccan Herald, Deseret News, ETInfra (Economic Times), Euronews, Euronews (citing CENTCOM and Iranian media), Euronews (citing CENTCOM), Forbes, France 24 (citing UKMTO, Vanguard), France 24 (citing UKMTO; ship unnamed), France 24 (citing Vanguard), FreightWaves, Ghana News Agency (RIA Novosti; UKMTO statement), Greek City Times, Gulf News, Gulf News (ADNOC via WAM), Gulf News (ADNOC via WAM; UAE MFA), Gulf News (ADNOC; UAE MFA), Gulf News (UKMTO), Gulf News (citing Dubai Media Office / WAM), Gulf News (citing Kuwait Ports Authority), Hellenic Shipping News (Arab News), Hellenic Shipping News (Arab News; UKMTO), Hellenic Shipping News (Investing.com, CENTCOM), Hellenic Shipping News (Windward note), Hindustan Times, IANS (via Morung Express, citing CENTCOM), IMO, Highlighted (confirmed) incidents list, IMO, Middle East highlighted (confirmed) incidents (as at 14 Oct 2026), IMO, Middle East highlighted (confirmed) incidents list, IMO, Middle East highlighted incidents (as at 14 Oct 2026), India TV News (citing KPC), India Today, Insurance Journal (Reuters), Internazionale (Reuters), Internazionale (Reuters, MSC statement), Internazionale (Reuters, citing UKMTO and Springfield Shipping), Iran International, Iran International (citing Bahrain interior ministry), Iran International (citing Bushehr deputy governor), Iran International (citing CENTCOM), Khaleej Times (ADNOC), Khaleej Times (citing ONA), Korea Herald (Korean ministries), Korea JoongAng Daily, Lloyd's List, Lloyd's List (citing Vanguard), London P&I (UKMTO Warning 032/26), MEED, MEED (citing Bahrain National Communication Centre, Bapco), MEED (citing Saudi Defence Ministry / SPA), MEED (citing WAM / Government of Fujairah media office), METIS / Fenix Insight, Macau Business (AFP; UKMTO and Vanguard Tech), Manila Times (AFP), Marhaba Qatar (citing QatarEnergy statement), Marine Insight, Marine Insight (citing UKMTO and Sharjah Government Media Bureau), Marine Insight (citing UKMTO), Marine Insight (citing US official via Fox News; Press TV; IRIB), Maritime Executive, Maritime Executive (citing Kuwaiti government), Maritime Optima, National Herald (citing IRNA/IRGC), News of Bahrain (UKMTO), Oman Observer (AFP; UKMTO, Vanguard), Oman Observer (Oman Maritime Security Centre), Politico (AP), PortNews (UKMTO), QC Intelligence, QNA (quoting UKMTO), Qatar Tribune (QNA, QatarEnergy statement), Regulas Shipping blog (summary of UKMTO 174-26/175-26), Reuters, Reuters (via Aaj News), Reuters (via Ada Derana), Reuters (via Al-Monitor), Reuters (via Arab News PK), Reuters (via BOE Report), Reuters (via Internazionale), Reuters via BOE Report, Riviera Maritime Media, S&P Global, Seatrade Cruise News, Seatrade Maritime News, Ship & Bunker, Ship & Bunker (CENTCOM statement), Ship & Bunker (citing KPC), Sinclair/News Channel 9 (citing CENTCOM), Skuld, Skuld (citing JMIC), Splash247, Taipei Times (Evergreen statement), The Defense Post (AFP), The Guardian, The Hindu, The Jakarta Post, The Jerusalem Post (Reuters), The Jerusalem Post (Reuters; Dynacom statement), The Maritime Executive, The Maritime Executive (CENTCOM, AP), The Maritime Executive (India MEA/Shipping Ministry), The Maritime Executive (citing UKMTO, CBS), The National (Bahri; Saudi MFA via SPA), The National (citing CENTCOM, IRGC, Tasnim), The New Arab, The New Arab (citing Iranian media), The New Arab (citing UKMTO, Vanguard), The Star (Reuters), The Star (Reuters; Stolt Tankers statement, UKMTO), The Star TV, The Times of Israel liveblog (CENTCOM), TradeWinds, UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, UKMTO Warning 005-26, UKMTO Warning 006-26, UKMTO Warning 010-26, UKMTO Warning 012-26, UKMTO Warning 014-26, UKMTO Warning 015-26, UKMTO Warning 018-26, UKMTO Warning 019-26, UKMTO Warning 020-26, UKMTO Warning 022-26, UKMTO Warning 023-26, UKMTO Warning 024-26, UKMTO Warning 025-26, US Department of War, USNI News (citing CENTCOM), WUNC/NPR, Ynetglobal, bne IntelliNews (headline only), gCaptain, gCaptain (Bloomberg), gCaptain (GasLog statement; UKMTO).
4. The Fujairah burn check
Burn-like darkening: dNBR at least 0.20, near- and short-wave infrared drop of at least 15%, vegetation index below 0.35 before; clusters of 0.1 ha or more. Active fire: very bright short-wave infrared pixels absent before. The same thresholds as our Black Sea check.
Pair 2026-02-26 → 2026-03-13 (covers the 2-3 and 9 March reports): 13.49 ha marked, 9.42 ha inside mapped oil facilities, 58 active-fire pixels. Quiet pair 2026-06-16 → 2026-07-06: 1.18 ha, 1 fire pixel.
Pair 2026-03-13 → 2026-03-28 (after the 14-17 March reports): 19.21 ha marked. Most of the area marked in this pair is a quarry west of the port and is probably unrelated; only the mark inside the tank farm is drawn.
One OpenStreetMap mapper tagged six Fujairah tanks "destroyed" on 6 and 16 Mar 2026; our marks sit 8-51 m from them. That is one unverified source. A hot spot at about 25.1618N 56.3211E shows in several pairs, including quiet ones: probably an industrial heat source, not drawn.
Marks show a change on the ground, not who or what caused it, and not how badly a tank is damaged. Storage tanks are drawn from OpenStreetMap; every tank there carries the same mapped height (18 m).
5. Who depends on Gulf fuel
Share of the value of refined fuel (HS 2710) and urea (HS 310210) imports that comes from Gulf countries, as each importer reports it to UN Comtrade. This is where the goods come from, not the route they took: Saudi Red Sea ports and Omani ports outside the strait do not pass Hormuz.
| Country | Refined fuel from Gulf countries | Urea from Gulf countries | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenya | 80.2% of import value | 80.5% of import value | 2024 |
| Ethiopia | 97.4% of import value | 20.2% of import value | 2023 |
| Djibouti | 81.8% of import value | 100.0% of import value | 2023 |
| Yemen | 98.6% of import value | 100.0% of import value | 2024 |
| Sudan | 86.7% of import value | 95.2% of import value | 2018 |
| Somalia | - | - | - |
UN Comtrade has no importer-reported data for Somalia, and none for Sudan after 2018 (before the 2023 war). Price changes shown for each country come from FEWS NET, FAO, national agencies and the press, each linked on the 3D view.
6. War-risk insurance
Additional war-risk premium for a Gulf voyage, as a share of the ship's hull value; broker quotes reported in the press, not an official tariff. The one series used on every screen: 0.25% (before the war, The National); 4-5× the pre-war rate (quoted 4 Mar, CRS R45281); about 2% (quoted 25 Jun, Insurance Business); 3-10% (quoted 17 Jul, The National); 3-8% (quoted late Aug, Insurance Business); 6-10% (quoted early Oct, Insurance Business citing FT). Quotes from different brokers and dates; not one continuous series. Each value is shown with its own date.
Credits
Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data 2026 (ESA), processed by us. AIS transits: IMF PortWatch. © OpenStreetMap contributors. UN Comtrade. World Bank commodity price data. 3D: Google Photorealistic 3D Tiles, Cesium World Terrain and Bing imagery via Cesium ion.