Elections · the next twelve months
Every national election ahead
Each vote on one card: when it is, what is being elected, and — where the contest is competitive — how exposed it is to a change in power, compared with a typical election. It does not say who wins.
What the read is
A calibrated relative risk that power changes hands at this vote — higher, close to or lower than at a typical competitive election. It comes from a structural model fitted on 1,407 competitive national elections in 128 countries since 1990: how long the governing side has held power, how often power has changed hands before, the state of the economy and of electoral democracy. Contests the model is not fitted for are on the calendar without a read.
Scored in public
Every read inside 60 days of its vote is locked in the forecast ledger before polling day and graded after it.