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War and drought now compound each other across a belt from Sudan to Somalia
Two wars and one drought belt converge on the Horn of Africa. Sudan's army-RSF civil war continues with no ceasefire, with 33.7 million people needing assistance in 2026 (OCHA, 2026 HNRP). Ethiopia's government and Tigray accuse each other of launching offensives (BBC, 23 Sep 2026), days after renewed warnings of a new war. GDACS logs active drought across Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea (GDACS, as of 23 Sep 2026). Yemen's re-escalated civil war has 18.3 million acutely food insecure (OCHA, 2026 HNRP), with displacement surging (OCHA, 21 Sep 2026).
The Iran war is the second-order link. Strait of Hormuz traffic runs at roughly 15 transits a day versus about 110 pre-war, choking Gulf food and fuel imports that East Africa and Yemen depend on. FAO's August 2026 food price index of 133.3, with oils at 196.9 (FAO, 2026-08), shows import costs staying elevated while drought cuts regional harvests. Gaza's fragile ceasefire still restricts aid — roughly 36% of allocated trucks entered between October 2025 and June 2026 (HRW, 19 May 2026). Ethiopia's Tigray escalation is the clearest near-term trigger for a new displacement wave into an already saturated region.
Watch items
- Ethiopia — Tigray offensive claims risk renewed war and displacement
- Yemen — Hodeidah fighting driving critical displacement surge
- Iran — Hormuz paralysis constraining Gulf food imports