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Eight countries at open war; blockades and drought now compound famine from Sudan to Somalia
Iran's multi-state war with the US and Israel has closed the Strait of Hormuz to all but a fraction of pre-war traffic, and the UN reported on Sep 21 that its experts found grounds to believe US strikes on Iran involved war crimes. Houthis fired ballistic missiles at the Saudi capital overnight, testing the fragile Red Sea pause. Ukraine hit Moscow with its largest drone attack yet. Sudan's SAF-RSF war continues after Feb 2026 genocide findings, with 33.7 million people needing aid in 2026. Gaza's Oct 2025 ceasefire is eroding under strikes and aid curbs; 34 countries sit at critical risk.
The connective tissue is chokepoints and harvests. Hormuz disruption plus drought across the Horn, the Sahel and East Africa squeezes food importers already near famine: 18.3 million Yemenis and a third of Afghans are acutely food insecure per OCHA assessments. FAO's Aug 2026 index shows oils at record highs, hitting import-dependent collapsed economies hardest — Sudan's currency is down over 1,000 percent. Lebanon's re-escalating Israel-Hezbollah front risks opening a second supply corridor crisis. Watch Africa's Sahel junta states, where drought meets jihadist siege economics in Djibo and Gao.
Watch items
- Yemen — Houthi-Saudi missile exchange threatening Red Sea shipping pause
- Sudan — RSF El Obeid siege starvation tactics spreading in Kordofan
- Haiti — Gang Suppression Force at one-fifth strength facing Port-au-Prince