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Eight months after Iran war began, its second-order shock now runs through the Red Sea into the Horn of Africa

Thirty-four countries sit in the critical risk band, but the binding story is a chain, not a list. The US-Israel-Iran war that opened on Feb 28 re-escalated in July when the Strait of Hormuz fell to roughly 15 transits a day against 110 pre-war, and Israel is fighting a parallel war in Lebanon that has killed at least 4,057 and displaced roughly 1.2 million people since Mar 2 (OCHA). Yemen's four-year truce collapsed in July with Houthi attacks on Hodeidah, and IOM is now logging fresh west-coast displacement daily. Sudan, Gaza, South Sudan and Burkina Faso remain famine-edge emergencies.

The link that matters is chokepoints to calories. Global food prices stand near record highs (FAO, Aug 2026) while Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Panama-adjacent Caribbean drought belt all sit inside active crises. East African imports — already strained by drought in Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and Uganda per GDACS — transit the same waters where Houthi attack capability is intact under an operational pause, not a settlement. Yemen's 18.3 million acutely food-insecure people (OCHA 2026 HNRP) are the first ledger of a wider shipping disruption. Famine declared over in Gaza in December 2025 remains reversible, with roughly a third of allocated aid trucks entering.

Watch items

• Yemen — Hodeidah escalation driving daily IOM displacement updates
• Iran — Hormuz transit collapse choking Gulf food imports
• Lebanon — Collapsed Jun 26 framework; Israeli troops on Lebanese soil