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Ceasefires exist on paper everywhere; the fighting never actually stopped
The defining pattern today is failed truces. Gaza's October 2025 ceasefire persists nominally while over 1,000 Palestinians have been killed since by post-truce Israeli strikes and Israel now holds roughly 70% of the Strip. The June Washington framework for Lebanon collapsed in practice: 4,000+ dead since March, IDF still on Lebanese soil, Hezbollah rejecting disarmament. Iran's July re-escalation choked Hormuz to a fraction of pre-war traffic. Yemen's Houthis just seized the Red Sea port of Mokha. Sudan's RSF siege of El Obeid grinds on, and Mali's rebels still threaten Bamako.
The connective tissue is food. The FAO food price index hit 133.3 in August with oils at 196.9, and 36 countries sit at critical risk — mostly places where war blocks aid rather than drought causing scarcity. Hormuz at a trickle means Gulf wheat imports and East African supply chains pay war premiums; Mokha's seizure tightens Red Sea options further. In Sudan, 33.7 million people need assistance in 2026 with starvation documented as a war method. Collapsed currencies — Iran's up over 4,000% against baseline — lock importing countries out of world markets entirely.
Watch items
- Yemen — Houthi seizure of Mokha port; Red Sea shipping calculus shift
- Iran — Hormuz chokepoint; Gulf food import costs
- Sudan — RSF El Obeid siege; famine spread into North Kordofan