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Six months of US-Iran war is throttling the chokepoint that feeds East Africa
Iran and the US are trading retaliatory attacks on ships, per yesterday's reporting, and Hormuz traffic has collapsed from roughly 110 transits daily pre-war to about 15. Sudan's civil war grinds on with RSF sieging El Obeid; OCHA projects 33.7 million Sudanese in need this year. Yemen's truce broke in July with new mass displacement in Ta'iz as of September 4. Gaza's October 2025 ceasefire is violated daily, with post-ceasefire strike deaths past 1,000 and roughly 36% of allocated aid trucks actually entering.
The connective tissue is chokepoints: Hormuz at 15 transits a day and a Houthi pause that could break raise insurance costs and grain routes into the Horn, where South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen already face near-famine conditions. Currency collapse compounds it — Sudan's has lost over 90% of its value cumulatively, hyperinflation in Iran — making imports unaffordable exactly as food prices run hot. Watch whether the Ukraine diplomacy in Moscow today touches grain, and whether Djibo's blockade tips into declared famine.
Watch items
- Iran — Hormuz shipping attacks choking Gulf food and fuel imports
- Burkina Faso — JNIM blockade of Djibo edging toward declared famine
- Lebanon — Hezbollah disarmament collapse threatening full re-escalation