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A belt of famine and war from Sudan to Somalia is deepening while Gulf conflict strangles trade
Sudan's army-RSF war grinds into a fifth year with famine confirmed in El Fasher and Kadugli and 33.7 million people needing aid — the largest humanitarian caseload on earth. South Sudan's reignited civil war has killed 767 civilians in the first quarter alone. In Gaza, the October 2025 ceasefire exists on paper: over 1,000 killed since it took effect and aid still throttled. Lebanon's truce is failing the same way — 4,057 dead and 1.2 million displaced since March. Iran's war with the US and Israel has cut Strait of Hormuz traffic from roughly 110 transits daily to about 15.
The connection is food. Global food prices are running hot, with vegetable oils at record highs, while drought persists across the Horn of Africa and the Gulf chokepoint disruption raises shipping costs for wheat-importing states from Yemen to East Africa. Yemen's internal Houthi-government truce shattered in July, adding 22 million aid-dependent people to an already strained corridor. Meanwhile USAID's 2025 dismantlement has left funding gaps precisely where need is largest — Sudan, Somalia, Burkina Faso's besieged town of Djibo faces credible famine risk. Watch whether Hormuz minesweeping and Qatari mediation hold; if either fails, food inflation compounds every crisis above.
Watch items
- Sudan — RSF ground assault on besieged El Obeid feared imminent
- Iran — Hormuz minesweeping and ceasefire framework under strain
- Ethiopia — Eritrea-Tigray force massing risks new interstate war