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Ceasefire paper, war real: 36 countries in crisis as truces fail to hold

Sudan, South Sudan, Palestine, and Somalia top today's global crisis index, but the defining pattern is ceasefires that exist only on paper. In Gaza, a truce signed last October has not stopped Israeli strikes from killing over 1,000 Palestinians since it took effect. In Lebanon, a ceasefire framework from June has produced 608 deaths and expanding Israeli ground operations. In Iran, a May ceasefire framework collapsed by July with Hormuz traffic at 15 transits daily versus 110 pre-war. Sudan's civil war entered its fourth year with RSF drone strikes on El Obeid markets and schools killing 45 civilians in June, while confirmed famine persists in El Fasher and Kadugli. Yemen's internal front reignited July 3 with the fiercest Houthi-government ground combat in years.

The convergence that matters is conflict plus food collapse plus currency destruction. Iran's currency has moved over 4,000% against baseline; Sudan's over 1,000%; Cuba's over 2,700%. These are not inflation readings — they are evidence that money has stopped functioning as a store of value, meaning food cannot be imported at any price the population can pay. Global food prices remain elevated, with oils at nearly triple the cereals index, hitting import-dependent war economies hardest. East Africa's drought belt — Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya — compounds this: 7.8 million South Sudanese face crisis-level hunger while their government bombs hospitals in Jonglei. The Red Sea shipping pause since September 2025 holds, but one vessel was attacked near Yemen on July 5, and any Houthi resumption would sever a lifeline for food imports into a Horn of Africa already in drought.

Watch items

• Iran — Hormuz transit collapse choking Gulf food import routes
• Sudan — RSF ground assault on El Obeid feared imminent
• Ethiopia — Eritrea-Tigray troop massing signals interstate war risk