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A belt of war from the Levant to the Sahel is colliding with collapsing food systems and broken ceasefires
The Strait of Hormuz is running at roughly 15 transits a day against a pre-war norm of 110, choking Gulf commerce as Iran-US-Israel strike exchanges resumed in July. Gaza's October ceasefire has absorbed over 1,000 post-truce deaths and aid deliveries remain at roughly a third of allocated volumes. Sudan's RSF siege of El Obeid threatens to replicate the El Fasher pattern, with 33.7 million in need — the highest figure globally. A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Indonesia overnight, exposing 1.7 million people to severe shaking. Syria's transitional legislature has still not convened after its July 5 postponement.
The connection is supply chains. Hormuz disruption and Houthi maritime threat feed directly into East African food security — Somalia and Ethiopia already face drought and active insurgency. Global food prices remain elevated, with vegetable oils near record highs, hitting import-dependent conflict states hardest. Currency collapse in Iran, Sudan, and Cuba means domestic food purchasing power is disintegrating even where physical supply exists. Lebanon's failing ceasefire and Yemen's renewed Houthi-government ground war add new layers to Red Sea risk precisely when Hormuz is already constricted. The compounding effect: humanitarian funding is shrinking as needs peak across Afghanistan, Sudan, and DRC.
Watch items
- Indonesia — Overnight 7.7M quake — aftershock and tsunami risk for 1.7M exposed
- Sudan — RSF ground assault on El Obeid feared imminent after drone strikes
- Iran — Hormuz transit collapse — Gulf food and energy import chokepoint