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A belt of unresolved wars from Sudan to Pakistan is colliding with famine and a choked Hormuz
Sudan's civil war entered its fourth year with RSF drone strikes on El Obeid killing 45 civilians and IPC-confirmed famine persisting in El Fasher and Kadugli. 33.7 million Sudanese need aid — the highest figure for any country. Gaza's October ceasefire is crumbling: 1,092+ Palestinians killed since the truce, IDF control expanded to roughly 70 percent of the Strip, and aid deliveries remain at roughly a third of allocated volumes. Yemen's de facto truce shattered on July 3 when Houthi forces launched their fiercest ground offensive in years. Mali's coordinated rebel offensive opened a western front on July 1, severing links to Senegal and Mauritania while a fuel blockade strangles Bamako. The Afghanistan-Pakistan war saw heavy-weapons firefights in Khybar through July 10.
These are not isolated emergencies. The Strait of Hormuz traffic has collapsed to roughly 15 transits per day from a pre-war 110, and FAO's June 2026 data shows edible oils at 192.0 — a level that strains import-dependent states. Iraq's food security is already directly impacted by the Hormuz disruption. Iran's currency has lost over 4,0 percent of its value. Sudan's currency has collapsed over 1,000 percent. The drought belt now spans the Horn of Africa through East Africa into the DRC, compounding food crises in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya simultaneously. When a choked Gulf meets a drought-struck Horn of Africa meets a famine-stricken Sudan, the second-order effect is a corridor of food-system failure stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean coast.
Watch items
- Iran — Hormuz transit collapse choking Gulf food and energy imports
- Sudan — RSF ground assault on El Obeid feared imminent
- Lebanon — IDF strikes beyond Yellow Line, ceasefire framework collapsing