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Shattered truces across the Middle East and Africa are weaponizing maritime trade and accelerating state failure.
The collapse of the Iran and US ceasefire has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, plunging daily transits from 110 to just 15 as Iranian forces target commercial shipping and Washington retaliates with coastal strikes. This maritime paralysis coincides with the shattering of the Yemen truce, where a Houthi surprise offensive in Hodeidah has reignited fierce ground combat. Meanwhile, in Sudan, the RSF is tightening its siege on El Obeid with relentless drone strikes on civilian infrastructure, while the South Sudan peace agreement has formally disintegrated following targeted assassinations in Akobo.
The Hormuz chokepoint closure is not just an energy shock; it is a direct threat to global food security. With the FAO food price index already elevated and edible oils surging, the paralysis of Gulf shipping routes will severely disrupt wheat and grain imports for the Middle East and East Africa. This maritime blockade compounds the catastrophic food crises in Yemen and the Horn of Africa, where drought and conflict have already pushed millions into emergency hunger. As global supply chains fracture, localized conflicts in places like Mali and Haiti are becoming entirely insulated from international diplomatic or humanitarian intervention.
Watch items
- Iran — Hormuz blockade impact on Gulf food imports
- Sudan — Imminent RSF ground assault on El Obeid
- Ukraine — Azov Sea drone strikes choking Crimea fuel supplies