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Faltering Middle East truces and Sudan's engineered starvation define a deeply fractured global crisis.

In Sudan, 11.8 million people are displaced, including 7.4 million IDPs (internally displaced people), as the RSF militia starves civilians following its October capture of El Fasher. Across the Middle East, paper truces are failing. Hezbollah rejected a conditional ceasefire in Lebanon, prompting renewed Israeli strikes on Beirut. In Gaza, an eight-month truce is fraying, with aid stuck below minimum requirements. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military junta controls just a fifth of its territory, losing ground near Mandalay. Combatants are ignoring diplomatic pauses, choosing escalation. Without enforced compliance, these fragmented conflicts will only deepen.

The collapse of these truces triggers severe second-order shocks. The faltering Iran-US-Israel ceasefire keeps the Strait of Hormuz contested, threatening global oil transit and keeping food prices elevated. High cooking oil costs directly worsen hunger in import-dependent nations like Yemen, where food insecurity is projected to jump to 58 percent. Simultaneously, Sudan’s 4.2 million refugees, a population larger than Berlin, are straining neighboring Chad and Egypt, which face their own economic crises. As climate stressors like Cyclone Bavi hit vulnerable regions, the absence of functional governance means local communities will absorb these compounding shocks alone.

Watch items

• Pakistan — Cross-border airstrikes disrupt Afghan refugee return routes
• Lebanon — Hezbollah truce rejection risks expanded Israeli ground operations
• Yemen — Houthi strike capabilities threaten fragile Red Sea shipping pause