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Faltering Middle East truces and entrenched African wars drive synchronized global displacement and food shocks.

The fragile Iran-US-Israel ceasefire remains fractured following June strikes, with the UN now evacuating sailors stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. In Sudan, the civil war enters its fourth year with no peace prospects, as the UN reports sexual violence is now a systematic weapon of war and IPC Phase 5 famine—the highest level on the food-crisis scale—persists in El Fasher. Sudan's 11.8 million displaced people now exceed the entire population of Berlin. Meanwhile, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck Venezuela on June 24, compounding severe economic collapse and severing critical supply routes.

These overlapping crises create cascading second-order effects. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would immediately spike global energy costs and disrupt food imports for Gulf states, driving up the already elevated global food price index. In the Levant, the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war has displaced 1.3 million people, creating a massive new population of IDPs—internally displaced people—who lack basic shelter. Furthermore, active combat in the Afghanistan-Pakistan war means cross-border trade routes remain severed, worsening food insecurity for millions. When major transit chokepoints and regional supply chains fail simultaneously, localized shortages rapidly become global inflationary shocks.

Watch items

• Iran — Hormuz naval blockade impact on Gulf food imports
• Sudan — Systematic sexual violence and famine in El Fasher
• Venezuela — Yaracuy earthquake response amid severe national economic collapse