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Paper ceasefires in the Middle East mask escalating ground wars and deepening famine across Sudan.

In Lebanon, a paper ceasefire is collapsing as Israeli forces push beyond their ten-kilometer security zone, killing over 600 people since the truce began. In Gaza, aid volumes remain at half their early-year levels, pushing the territory back toward famine. Yet the most severe physical displacement is in Sudan, where 11.8 million people — more than the population of Sweden — are now internally displaced people (IDPs, civilians forced to flee within their own borders) or refugees. In Darfur, armed groups are using starvation as a weapon, with famine already declared in El Fasher.

These overlapping wars are strangling global supply chains. Although Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping are paused, the unresolved dispute over Strait of Hormuz control between the US and Iran keeps maritime insurance premiums high. This friction sustains elevated global food prices, particularly for cooking oils. Consequently, countries importing staple foods face severe economic shocks. Sudan’s currency has collapsed by nearly 800 percent in thirty days, making imported wheat unaffordable. When conflict disrupts transit routes and destroys local agriculture simultaneously, the resulting food-consumption score (FCS, a measure of dietary quality and quantity) drops to emergency levels across the Horn of Africa.

Watch items

• Somalia — Monitor Mogadishu supply routes as Al-Shabaab exploits mandate crisis
• DR Congo — Track Ebola transmission in M23-controlled Goma displacement camps
• Myanmar — Anticipate mass displacement as resistance forces push into Mandalay