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Ceasefires are fracturing in Lebanon and Gaza while engineered starvation and displacement accelerate in Sudan.
In Lebanon, a US-brokered truce is unraveling as Israeli ground raids push past the Litani River, killing 608 people since the ceasefire began. In Gaza, the October 2025 truce is similarly strained; authorities are blocking half of Egyptian aid trucks, pushing the territory back toward IPC Phase 5—the highest level on the global food-crisis scale. Meanwhile, Sudan’s civil war has displaced 11.8 million people, roughly the population of Portugal. The Rapid Support Forces occupy El Fasher, with the United Nations confirming they used starvation as a weapon of war. Afghanistan and Pakistan remain locked in active cross-border airstrikes.
The gap between diplomatic agreements and ground realities is widening. While the US and Iran negotiate a 60-day framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, unresolved disputes over maritime tolls keep global shipping routes precarious, threatening food imports for Gulf states and East Africa. In Haiti, gang coalitions have displaced 1.5 million people—more than the population of Prague—as a new UN-backed security force struggles to deploy. When truces exist only on paper and blockades persist, humanitarian access collapses. The immediate risk is not just renewed combat, but the systemic denial of basic survival resources to trapped civilian populations.
Watch items
- Myanmar — Resistance advance on Mandalay threatens junta supply lines.
- Somalia — Al-Shabaab maneuvering to encircle Mogadishu amid political mandate crisis.
- DR Congo — M23 occupation of Goma traps hundreds of thousands.