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Middle East paper ceasefires mask expanding ground wars, while Sudan and Myanmar face total state collapse.

In Lebanon, a paper truce is failing. Israeli forces are pushing past their ten kilometer security zone, and over one million people, more than the population of Amsterdam, are now displaced. Meanwhile, Sudan is enduring its fourth year of civil war. The Rapid Support Forces control El Fasher, where investigators confirmed genocide last year, leaving nearly twelve million people displaced. In the Strait of Hormuz, minesweeping has begun under a new sixty day Iran ceasefire framework, though disputes over naval tolls remain unresolved. Ground combat will likely expand in Lebanon if diplomatic talks in Washington stall this week.

These overlapping conflicts create severe secondary shocks. The Strait of Hormuz dispute directly threatens global oil transit and food imports for Gulf states, which could drive up already high global cereal prices. In Gaza, the fragile October ceasefire is fraying; aid deliveries have halved, pushing the territory back toward famine. Similarly, drought across Southeast Asia and the Americas is shrinking crop yields just as supply chains face pressure. If the Iran framework collapses and Hormuz closes again, East African nations relying on Gulf transit routes will face immediate food shortages by late summer.

Watch items

• Lebanon — Israeli ground expansion beyond the Litani River security zone.
• Iran — Strait of Hormuz naval toll disputes threatening global shipping.
• Sudan — Famine and mass displacement in El Fasher after genocide.