Daily Brief · free, every morning
Hormuz blockade and civil wars in Sudan and Haiti are driving a synchronized global food shortage.
Active strikes in Iran continue to block the Hormuz Strait, a maritime route carrying one-fifth of global oil. This disruption pushed March vegetable oil costs to record highs while delaying fuel shipments. In Sudan, three years of civil war between the army and paramilitaries have displaced 9.5 million IDPs (internally displaced people, forced to flee within their own country), roughly the population of Berlin and Paris combined. Haiti’s capital remains under armed gang control, cutting road access and pushing chronic hunger toward 71 percent within ninety days. These shocks are tightening grain markets. Freight costs will likely rise through May as shipping insurance premiums increase.
Higher shipping insurance and fuel prices directly raise the cost of delivering wheat to East Africa and Yemen. Household budgets from 2024 cannot cover these transport costs, forcing families to skip meals. The Iranian currency collapse, devalued by over 2600 percent, has erased local purchasing power and made regional grain imports unaffordable. Without alternate shipping lanes or stored food, deliveries to isolated towns will stall. Pre-positioning grain in Djibouti and Oman will likely shorten transit times by early summer months.
Watch items
- Iran — Hormuz blockade delays Gulf wheat shipments
- Sudan — SAF-RSF fighting blocks Darfur aid corridors
- Haiti — Gang road closures cut Port-au-Prince harvest access